The October consumer price index, released Tuesday, November 10, rose 0.4% on the month and core prices 0.3%, each a tenth above the Dow Jones consensus. On Friday, producer prices for final demand showed a 6.5% rise over twelve months, the largest since November 2022. When the Fed held in October, two members voted to hike, as we wrote on October 29; this week the data argued their case, and markets now price a quarter-point increase at the December 8 to 9 meeting.
The numbers, including one that does not exist
Energy did less of the work this time. The energy index rose 0.7% after 5.2% in September, food 0.5% and shelter 0.3%; shelter alone supplied more than 30% of the increase. Core has now risen 0.3% three months running.
The annual rate is missing. BLS did not collect October 2025 data during the lapse in appropriations, so it cannot publish twelve-month changes for most October indexes, core included. The last official reading is 3.7% for September, up from 3.4% in August.
Producer prices rose 0.3% on the month, under the 0.4% expected, but the annual figures are the alarm: goods up 10.2%, the most since October 2022, and the BLS core measure, which also strips out trade services, up 4.9%. LPL Financial's Jeffrey Roach, quoted by TheStreet, put annual core producer prices at 5.0%.
Hiring stopped being the excuse. October payrolls rose 165,000, unemployment was 4.1%, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000.
What the committee's voices said
Governor Christopher Waller said in London on Tuesday that he leans toward a quarter point, and that a half point should be considered if October core came in around 0.3% or higher, Kitco reported. It did. "Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk," he said. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the committee needs at least two more quarter-point hikes and may be able to move faster this winter.
Chicago's Austan Goolsbee, a non-voter until January, called the CPI report "borderline disturbing". Michelle Bowman said inflation has been more persistent than she expected, spreading beyond imports, energy and data-center components, but stopped short of endorsing a hike and wants more data on financial conditions.
Two cases, as their makers put them
The case for a December hike, possibly a large one, rests on credibility (Waller, Goolsbee), inflation broadening past energy (Bowman), steady 0.3% core, a 6.5% producer-price pipeline, and hiring well above the prior year's 48,000 monthly average.
The case for waiting is quieter; no official in the coverage we read argued publicly for a December hold. It arrives in pieces. Logan argues that gradual moves help households and businesses adapt. Waller noted that hikes need not come at consecutive meetings. Bowman wants to see financial conditions, which tightened this week without the Fed. Cleveland's Beth Hammack doubts a couple of small hikes would do much to AI data-center demand, and Chair Kevin Warsh expects AI to act as a medium-term positive supply shock. Energy inflation slowed sharply, and gasoline fell below $4 by November 9, per GasBuddy, after the October survey.
What it costs tech
Markets did not wait. ABC put December quarter-point odds near 82% on CPI day; Trading Economics later cited about 85%, with about 15% for a half point. The 10-year stood at 5.15% on Friday, up 30 basis points on the week, after touching 5.16%, its highest since October.
The Nasdaq fell 0.91% on Friday while the Dow edged up. Trading Economics tied part of that day's Treasury selling to fears for AI-linked debt after Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia's chief executive, which TheStreet also reported. AI is inside the Fed's diagnosis now: Waller flagged AI-related capital spending as an inflation pressure.
The rest is the arithmetic from our October 29 post, run off a higher number: a higher ten-year shrinks the present value of profits promised for the 2030s, raises the coupon on debt that funds data centers before they earn, and lifts the return a venture check must beat. For engineers paid or billing in euros or dinars, a Fed tightening ahead of Europe usually means a firmer dollar; we found no sourced exchange-rate move this week, so read that as direction, not measurement. Oil adds pressure, with Brent at $96.21 on Friday amid a continuing US blockade of Iran.
What we could not verify
- October's annual CPI. BLS did not publish it; any October year-over-year CPI figure is someone's estimate, and could sit above or below September's 3.7%.
- Core PPI at 5.0%. The BLS core measure we could read is 4.9%; LPL's figure likely uses a narrower series we could not see.
- Hike odds and yields. Odds come via news outlets, not CME; yields are Trading Economics', since Treasury's data would not open. We found no source for a 5.10% ten-year on November 12.
- Nvidia. The leadership change is reported by two outlets; we did not confirm it with Nvidia.
The 30,000-foot read
The committee votes on December 9, but on the question that matters most to builders, the cost of capital, the bond market has already voted. The open question is size, and Waller put the half point on the table himself. Whether a hike is wise is for the voters to judge, and their colleagues have handed both sides real arguments. What can be said plainly is that money for long-dated projects, which describes most of the AI build-out and the venture model, cost more on Friday than on Monday.
Before December 9, watch for any official who argues for a hold, oil and the Iran blockade, whether the ten-year revisits its October highs, and any November data that lands first. None of that is ours to steer. Runway, refinancing dates and the currency on our contracts are.
Sources: BLS CPI release, Nov 10, 2026 (monthly CPI, core, energy, food and shelter changes; missing October 2025 data and unpublished 12-month changes; September 12-month rate of 3.7%; gasoline 37.4%; image marker); BLS PPI release, Nov 13, 2026 (final demand 6.5% and its 2022 comparison, goods 10.2%, core ex trade services 4.9%; chart data); BLS Employment Situation, Nov 6, 2026 (payrolls, unemployment, revisions); StockAnalysis (Dow Jones CPI and core forecasts, three months of 0.3% core); ABC News via ABC30 (shelter share, August 3.4%, 82% odds, GasBuddy price, 48,000 average); TheStreet (PPI monthly versus forecast, Roach's 5.0%, December 8 to 9 meeting, Nasdaq and Dow moves, Brent, Iran blockade, Nvidia report); Trading Economics (10-year levels and weekly change on Nov 13, 85% and 15% odds, AI debt link); Kitco (Waller and Logan remarks; Waller quote); Scotsman Guide (Goolsbee quote and voting status, Hammack, Warsh supply-shock view); American Banker (Bowman remarks). CAVEATS: no CPI 12-month change for October exists from BLS, so this post does not give one. Consensus forecasts are Dow Jones polls reported by secondary outlets. Fed officials' remarks come via news coverage, not transcripts we reviewed; the Goolsbee interview date is inferred as November 10 from the publication date, and his "work to do" remarks reported by TheStreet are not quoted here. Federalreserve.gov and Treasury's yield data could not be opened, so the October dissents rest on our October 29 post. Trading Economics' late-week items are dated November 13 but one is undated, so the 85% and 15% odds may be from earlier in the week. The discount, venture and currency effects are our reasoning, not sourced measurements. Corrections to the leads: BLS published no October year-over-year CPI; core PPI is 4.9% on the BLS measure we could read (5.0% per LPL); we found the 10-year at 5.15% on Nov 13 (5.16% high), not a sourced 5.10% on Nov 12; TheStreet's oil items cite the US blockade of Iran and an IRGC strike on a US radar in Bahrain, not shipping attacks. Nothing here is investment advice.